Prediction of Embankment Dam Breach Parameters: A Literature Review and Needs Assessment

This comprehensive report examines existing empirical procedures and numerical models used to predict embankment dam breach parameters, mechanics of embankment erosion during overtopping, the NRCS SITES model, lateral erosion models, STARS/GSTARS, and more. It reviews new technologies relevant to dam breaches, and outlines a program for development of an improved numerical model for the simulation of embankment dam breach events. This report examines the role, importance, and methods for predicting embankment dam breach parameters needed for analysis of potential dam-failure floods. Special emphasis is given to dam breach analysis within the context of the risk assessment process used by the Bureau of Reclamation. Current methods for predicting embankment dam breach parameters and numerically modeling dam breach events are reviewed, and the needs and opportunities for developing improved technologies are discussed. The mechanics of dam breach processes are reviewed and compared with the available numerical models, and recent technical advances that could contribute to improvements in dam breach simulation are identified. A database containing information on 108 actual dam failure case studies is presented and analyzed, and a bibliography containing more than 125 relevant publications is assembled. Additional keywords: dam failure/dam breach/erosion/breach parameters/breach mechanics/loss-of-life estimates/warning time/emergency action plans/early warning systems/headcut erosion/headcutting/fuse plug spillways. Cross References: PAP-735, PAP-744, V-1, V-99, V-100