Development of a Seismic Risk Screening Tool for Earthen Embankments

Dam owners in the U.S. are required to assess the performance and safety of their dams under normal operating conditions as well as extreme events such as earthquakes. However, limited availability of resources makes it impossible to address all potential dam safety issues in a large portfolio of dams. There is comfort in the use of “Factors of Safety” which do not convey the associated risk. However, with the trend towards risk-informed decision making, many dam owners recognize the need to move in this direction. The authors have developed a Monte Carlo approach for performing probabilistic seismic risk analyses of a portfolio of dams, with the overall framework being applicable to a wide range of earthen embankments and site conditions. This paper presents an overview of the framework, results of the analyses on a representative dam scenario, and discussion of extension to a portfolio of dams.