Evaluating Extreme Precipitation for Hydrologic Analysis for Dam Safety and Mining Operations: Considering Current and Future Conditions

Quantifying the effects of extreme precipitation and changing meteorological conditions on mining operations and planning for closure conditions and design is critically important to ensure safe and efficient operations today and in the future. Applied Weather Associates (AWA) has completed 100’s of site-specific meteorological analyses and climate change assessments world-wide, many for complex mining operations. These studies have included determination of Probable Maximum precipitation (PMP), precipitation frequency, and Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) for both current conditions and climate change projections. Results have been used to determine spillways adequacy, understanding water balance, evaluations of extreme precipitation depths and seasonality, and input for evaluation of hydrologic runoff responses. In order to provide a complete picture that includes both current conditions and future conditions, AWA has completed several climate change assessments that incorporate both the site-specific data from current observations and future climate change projections. These climate change assessments accurately consider the site-specific characteristics related to precipitation and other meteorological factors, building off the work AWA has completed for each location. AWA has been able to provide detailed evaluations of potential future conditions, along with uncertainty analyses that allows for more accurate characterization of potential climate change outcomes. This is very important for operations to determine where and how to best allocate funding for future conditions and ensure ongoing safe operations.