Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis Using the Random Finite Element Method (RFEM)

This research project developed a computer program based on the random finite element method (RFEM), able to estimate the probability of failure of slopes while fully accounting for spatial variability controlled through an input parameter called the spatial correlation length. The elasto-plastic finite element slope stability method makes no a priori assumptions about the shape or location of the critical failure mechanism and therefore, offers very significant benefits over traditional limit equilibrium methods in the analysis of highly variable soils. Loadings of particular interest in this project include seismic events and potential instability caused during construction or modification of a dam. The probability of failure can be used to prioritize dam safety activities within a risk context. The risk reduction benefits in terms of money spent per unit reduction in failure probability of risk can provide a useful measure for comparing dam safety modification alternatives.