RCEM – Reclamation Consequence Estimating Methodology: Guidelines for Estimating Life Loss for Dam Safety Risk Analysis (Interim)

Reclamation’s approach to estimating the consequences from dam failure is primarily rooted in empirical interpretation of dam failure and flood event case histories. The procedure utilized by Reclamation since 1999, as documented in Dam Safety Report No. DSO-99-06, has been based on an analysis of dam failures, flash floods, and regional floods. The new methodology continues to rely on case history data to guide the selection of fatality rates; however, additional world-wide case histories have been added to the data set. This new methodology is very similar to Reclamation’s previous procedure, but relies now on a graphical representation of fatality rate as a function of flood severity and warning time. Flood severity is now defined quantitatively in terms of DV (product of flood depth and velocity). It is believed the new methodology represents a more transparent and defensible means of portraying life loss estimates.