Security Risk Assessments Using the Common Risk Model for Dams (CRM-D): Portfolio Risk Analysis Incorporating Threat Modeling

The Common Risk Model for Dams (CRM-D) is a consistent, mathematically rigorous, and easy to implement method for security risk assessment of dams, navigation locks, hydropower projects, and similar infrastructures. This methodology, whose implementation represents collaborative efforts between the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, provides a systematic approach for evaluating and comparing security risks across a large portfolio. Generic security configurations are used to characterize the security posture of critical components within a facility, and the corresponding vulnerability estimates can be determined for a number of potential attack vectors. By combining the resulting vulnerability - expressed as the probability of successful attack - with the corresponding consequence estimates, a conditional risk value for each attack scenario may be calculated. The CRM-D also incorporates a decision model to estimate the relative probability of potential attack scenarios for a given portfolio. The decision model, which is based on analysis techniques commonly applied in market research applications, constitutes a unique contribution to the methods of eliciting expert uncertainty and aggregating expert opinions. The CRM-D can effectively quantify the benefits of implementing a particular risk mitigation strategy and, consequently, enable return-on-investment analyses for multiple mitigation alternatives across a large portfolio. This paper describes the CRM-D methodology and its current implementation efforts.