Stochastic Modeling Methods

The purpose of this project is to perform a detailed analysis and review of stochastic rainfall/runoff models, including those currently used by Reclamation; compile and review other stochastic models available and evaluate their applicability to the BOR Dam Safety program objectives. The MGS stochastic model is one tool currently used by DSO to determine hydrologic risk. This study will allow the Probabilistic Flood Hazard Cadre to identify the strengths, weaknesses, and limitations of the MGS model and other stochastic models that will enable DSO managers to effectively and correctly apply the information. It is important that paleoflood data, one of several sets of data used by DSO to evaluate hydrologic risk, can be incorporated into these stochastic models. The study tasks are to: undertake an extensive search, review, compilation, and evaluation of other stochastic rainfall/runoff models to better understand the current state-of-knowledge. In addition, a detailed analysis and review of the MGS stochastic model shall be performed. The detailed analysis of the MGS model will include review by independent experts. Important aspects of the review shall address issues of uncertainty, sensitivity analysis, and plausibility of incorporating paleoflood data into the stochastic model.