Consequence Estimation for the Herbert Hoover Dike Dam Safety Modification Study Risk Assessment

Although a dam failure can have many types of severe consequences, including economic, social, cultural, and environmental, the primary objective of the USACE Dam Safety program is to manage the potential loss of life risk to the downstream public. USACE considers potential life loss separately from economic and other considerations. Given the generally low likelihood of failure for the majority of dams, it is often difficult to justify dam safety modifications based on economic risk (cost/benefit) alone. Yet, the public may still be at higher risk than society is typically willing to tolerate.
Due to the complex nature of the flood characteristics and areas at risk from potential failure of Herbert Hoover Dike (HHD), the LIFESim modeling approach was applied to estimate life loss associated with potential failure of the dike. LIFESim is a modular, spatially-distributed, dynamic simulation system for estimating potential life loss from natural and dam and levee failure floods that explicitly considers the primary factors that contribute to life loss in a flood situation. LIFESim is the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) most rigorous approach for estimating potential loss of life due to dam failure.
Direct economic damages, including urban and agricultural damages, were computed using the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Flood Impact Analysis (HEC-FIA) program.
This presentation will provide an overview of the LIFESim and HEC-FIA modeling approach for HHD and describes lessons learned during the process. 23 pp., 8 references.