The Increasing Number of Tailings Facility Failures: Navigating the Decade 2020-2029

In 2011 (Chambers & Higman) the authors published the results of their research into worldwide tailings dam failures. This research, which involved developing the most complete list of tailings dam failures publically available (www.worldminetailingsfailures.org), showed the rate of tailings dam failures over that period was relatively constant. There are two immediate implications of this finding. First, efforts to implement regulatory, engineering, and operating changes to lower the rate of tailings dam failures are not having the desired effect. Second, because the rate is staying the same, and the number of mines is increasing, the number of failures is also rising. In 2017 we (Bowker & Chambers) updated our data to include the half-decade from 2010 – 2014. We segregated the data into several different categories in accordance with observed impact, and noted that the failure rate remained essentially the same for the most important Serious and Very Serious failures. We also found a correlation between the production of copper ore, an analog often used for metal production in general, and the number of failures. We now have data for next half-decade, 2015-2019, and will show how this new data relates not only to the trends observed in previous decades, but also how it compares to the predictions we made for this time period, and what we predict for the next decade if significant changes to present practices for the design, construction, operation, and closure of tailings dams are not made.

Abstract only.