West Regional Conference: Agenda

*Tentative Agenda as of March 4, 2019


12:00 pm – 8:00 pm
Speaker Preview Room Open

12:00 pm – 5:00 pm
Exhibit Setup

12:00 pm – 6:00 pm
Registration Open

3:00 pm – 5:00 pm
West Regional Caucus Meeting 

5:00 pm – 5:30 pm
Moderators Training Session 

5:00 pm – 6:30 pm
Opening reception in the exhibit area.



7:30 am – 8:00 pm
Speaker Preview Room Open

7:30 am – 6:30 pm
Registration and Exhibits Open (includes Reception)

7:30 am – 8:30 am
Continental Breakfast in the Exhibit Hall

7:30 am – 8:00 am
Tuesday Speakers and Moderators Meeting

8:30 am – 10:00 am
Session 1: Historical Perspectives of Extreme Rainfall and Runoff in the West

ASDSO Welcome
Bill McCormick, P.E., Chief, Dam Safety Branch, CO Division of Water Resources

A Brief History of Extreme Rainfall and Flooding in The Western US
Russ S. Schumacher, Director, Colorado Climate Center and Colorado State Climatologist

The Utility of Paleoflood Data in Estimating Flood Hazard in the Western US
Ralph E. Klinger and Jeanne E. Godaire, Technical Service Center, Bureau of Reclamation

StreamStats: A Web-based Application for Retrieving Basin Characteristics and Streamflow Statistics for Gaged and Ungaged Streams.
Michael S. Kohn, P.E., Civil Engineer, U.S. Geological Survey

10:00 am – 10:30 am
Coffee Break

10:30 am – 12:00 pm
Session 2: Climate Extremes Across the West

Considering Climate Change in the Estimation of Extreme Precipitation for Dam Safety 
Jeff Lukas, Senior Associate Scientist, Western Water Assessment, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado-Boulder; and Kelly Mahoney, Physical Scientist, NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory

West Coast Precipitation Extremes in a Warming World: Atmospheric Rivers and Decaying Tropical Systems
Michael. L. Anderson, California State Climatologist, California Department of Water Resources

Climate Extremes in the Pacific Northwest 
David C. Curtis, Ph.D., Senior Vice President, WEST Consultants

12:00 pm – 1:00 pm
Lunch On Own

1:00 pm – 3:00 pm
Session 3: Extreme Rainfall Prediction - Defining the State of the Practice for the 21st Century

Development of the Deterministic Regional Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates for the Colorado-New Mexico Regional Extreme Precipitation Analysis 
Doug Hultstrand, Senior Hydrometeorologist, Geoffrey A. Muhlestein, GIS Analyst, and Bill Kappel, Chief Meteorologist, Applied Weather Associates

Regional Extreme Precipitation Frequency Analysis for Colorado and New Mexico
Tye W. Parzybok, President, Debbie Martin, and Blake Allen, MetStat, Inc.; and Mel Schaefer, MGS Engineering Consultants

Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Forecasts from the HRRR Model
Trevor Alcott, Global Systems Division and Kelly Mahoney, Physical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory; and Eric James, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences

Regional Extreme Precipitation Study Process: Building Confidence and Consensus through an Ensemble of Tools, Expert Oversight, Beta Testing, and Quality Assurance Checks
Mark A. Perry, P.E., Dam Safety Engineer and William T. McCormick, III, P.E., P.G., Chief of Dam Safety, Colorado Division of Water Resources; Charles N. Thompson, P.E., Dam Safety Bureau Chief, James D. Head, P.E., Dam Safety Engineer, and Sushil K. Chaudhary, D. Eng., P.E., Dam Safety Engineer, New Mexico Office of the State Engineer

3:00 pm – 3:30 pm
Refreshment Break

3:30 pm – 5:00 pm
Session 4: Current and Future Federal Activities in Extreme Rainfall Estimation

Rain Rain Go Away, A Perspective of PMPs over the last 26 years from a FERC-D2SI Civil Engineer
Kevin Griebenow, P.E., Civil Engineer, Branch Supervisor, Chicago Regional Office Division of Dam Safety and Inspections

NOAA Atlas #14 - Planned Updates and Upgrades
Mark Glaudemans, P.E., Civil Engineer, Sandra Pavlovic, Associate Scientist, Michael St. Laurent, Associate Scientist, Carl Trypaluk, Associate Scientist, Dale Unruh, Associate Scientist, and Orlan Wilhite, Associate Scientist, Office of Water Prediction, National Weather Service, NOAA and University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Potential Uses of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model in PMP and PF Estimation
Kelly Mahoney, Research Meteorologist, NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences Division

5:00 pm – 6:30 pm
Reception in the Exhibit Hall



7:30 am – 5:00 pm
Registration Open

7:30 am – 4:00 pm
Speaker Preview Room Open

7:30 am – 3:30 pm
Exhibits Open

7:30 am – 8:30 am
Continental Breakfast in the Exhibit Hall

7:30 am – 8:00 am
Wednesday Speakers and Moderators Meeting

8:30 am – 10:00 am
Session 5: They Do Happen - Extreme Hydrologic Event Case Histories

Addicks and Barker Dams and Reservoirs: Resiliency After Hurricane Harvey
Rob Thomas, P.E., Chief, Engineering and Construction and Kenneth Darko-Kagya, P.E., Ph.D., Dam Safety Program Manager, US Army Corps of Engineers, Galveston District

Wildfire Impacts on Runoff and Erosion versus Large Floods: A Question of Magnitudes, Duration, and Scale
Lee H. MacDonald, Senior Research Scientist, Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory, Daniel J. Brogan, Ph.D., and Peter A. Nelson, Associate Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, and Stephanie K. Kampf, Associate Professor, Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University; and Joseph W. Wagenbrenner, Research Hydrologist, Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service

Preparing for the Future by Learning from the Past at DamFailures.org
Gregory Richards, P.E., CFM, Project Engineer, Gannett Fleming, Inc. and DamFailures.org Subcommittee Chair, ASDSO

10:00 am – 10:30 am
Coffee Break

10:30 am – 12:00 pm
Session 6: Recent Advances in Runoff Modeling

Hydrologic Modeling in the National Weather Service: Now and in the Future
Tony Anderson, Service Hydrologist, National Weather Service - Pueblo

Identifying and Modeling Streamflow Production Mechanisms During Extreme Precipitation Events in the Colorado Front Range
Douglas Woolridge, EIT, Graduate Research Assistant and Jeff Niemann, Ph.D., P.E., Faoro Professor of Water Resources, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University; Mark Perry, P.E., Dam Safety Engineer, Kallie Bauer, P.E., Dam Safety Engineer, and William T. McCormick, III, P.E., P.G., Chief of Dam Safety, Colorado Division of Water Resources

Applying Texas’ New PMP Tool- Limitations, Case Studies for Small and Large Dam Watersheds, Similarities and Differences to other PMP Tools in the West Region
Sunit Deo, P.E., CFM, Senior Water Resources Engineer and Kelley Rich, P.E., CFM, Water Resources Engineer, HDR Engineering, Inc.

12:00 pm – 1:30 pm
Lunch On Own

1:30 pm – 3:00 pm
Session 7: Hydraulic Design for Extreme Hydraulic Events

Migth As Well Jump
Christopher I. Thornton, Ph.D., P.E., Associate Professor, Colorado State University

Unlined Spillway Erodibility Assessment: Challenges and New Developments
Michael George, Ph.D., P.E., Senior Geological Engineer, BGC Engineering, Inc.

Methods of Spillway Analysis for the Gross Reservoir Expansion Project
Michael Zusi, P.E., Senior Engineer, and Yongqiang (Frank) Lan, Ph.D., P.E., Principal Water Resources Engineer/Project Manager, AECOM

3:00 pm – 3:30 pm
Refreshment Break

3:30 pm – 5:00 pm
Session 8: Risk-based Evaluation of Hydraulic Adequacy

Considering a Risk Based Spillway Standard? Montana’s Experience, Successes, Problems, Lessons Learned and Advice
Michele Lemieux, P.E., MT Dam Safety Program Supervisor, MT Department of Natural Resources & Conservation

A Robust and Efficient Stochastic Simulation Framework for Estimating Reservoir Stage-frequency Curves with Uncertainty Bounds
Haden Smith, P.E., U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Risk Management Center

Development and Deployment of TVA's Risk-based Assessment System: An overview of development through real-time decision support
Jonathan A. Quebbeman, Ph.D., P.E., P.H., RTI International, Inc.

3:30 pm – 5:00 pm
Exhibit Dismantle



8:30 am – 4:30 pm (return time is approximate)
Field Trip: Colorado State University Modeling Lab
*Separate registration required. Transportation to and from the lab as well as a box lunch is included with registration. 

Special thanks to our sustaining members